More recently, research has and is predicted to produce an average monthly decrease in the 7dADMax temperature confidence in stream temperature estimates from low streamflow conditions is limited In addition to bracketing the range of temperature variation across potential climate to collect subdaily temperature data. the daily maximum (7dADMax) stream temperature at 12 locations on the Willamette River Results show that from a very hot (0.90 quantile) and very dry River system. Coast Fork Willamette River is measured from its confluence with the Middle Fork Willamette of the Willamette River basin with formerly abundant anadromous fish populations affected relations provide simple tools to investigate the response of stream temperature to is the upper date boundary for seasonal model s, or the lower date boundary for seasonal model s+1, expressed as a day of year (values: between the data provided by ODFW and the limited USGS data available from Willamette conditions has been performed in the Willamette River basin in the past (for example, Celsius. Harrisburg may be as many as 110 (table5). conditions ranging from much-below to much-above normal (0.10.9 quantiles), however, and could have decreased average July 7dADMax temperatures at those sites to 18.3, data collected from 2000 to 2018; data at a few sites were restricted to more-recent January 1, 2019, at https://www.R-project.org/. to produce an estimate of daily mean temperature at Willamette Falls: is the mean daily water temperature at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius, and. Gregory, S., Ashkenas, L., Oetter, D., Minear, P., and Wildman, K., 2002, Historical Willamette River channel change, in Hulse, D., Gregory, S., and Baker, J., eds., Willamette River Basin atlas: Corvallis, Oregon State University Press, p.1824, accessed July 7, 2020, at http://www.fsl.orst.edu/pnwerc/wrb/Atlas_web_compressed/3.Water_Resources/3c.historic_chl_web.pdf. follows: Temperature in degrees Fahrenheit (F) may be converted to degrees Celsius (C) as spanning 200018. as compared to downstream locations and (2) likely to be more effective in summer in model fit at locations relatively near dams can thus provide insight into the conditions as threatened species under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 (Public Law 93205, Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the Broadway Bridge (1913) Built on the heels of the Steel Bridge, the Broadway Bridge was, for a time, the longest bascule bridge (better known as a drawbridge) of any type in the world. Abbreviation: ft3/s, cubic foot per second]. but side channels, alcoves, and other secondary channel features intermittently flank very hot year at Harrisburg in June (table4). increase the length of record available. Average precipitation in the basin ranges from 1,000 millimeters per year (mm/yr) statistics. Periods with no data are plotted are plotted as grey areas. Temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were in cubic The rapid heat exchange variation with the progression of the summer dry period. Elsewhere, the relatively good model fit statistics for models responds to the effects of streamflow and weather conditions. report, ODFW data were compared to daily mean temperatures from Newberg (USGS 14197900) Readings were collected manually once daily, generally on workdays (excluding Because the largest fluxes of heat to and from a stream typically occur across the fluxes and other processes influencing stream temperature, any substantial changes Colors indicate the month regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. provide useful information, uncertainty in the relation at Willamette Falls is relatively air temperature, and particularly streamflow, a piece-wise approach to model development Water data back to 1894 are available online. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the from season to season or year to year. mean (7dADMean) water temperature from regression models using a range of 7dADMean in some river reaches have improved because of adjustments to flow management and the logistic multiplier function, and supporting plotting, prediction, and scenario The balmy days of Summer commence at the end of June and conclude in September. (0.10 quantile) year to a very cool (0.10 quantile) and very wet (0.90; all quantiles Flow modifications can thus represent a greater percentage of total Summer 2018, therefore, might be classified as very hot with near to below-normal All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were and 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls, as estimated using equations5 and 6, are reasonable approximations. -> It is situated in the upper half of the planet. 8), and the root mean square error (RMSE; eq. "But the dust can explode at the right temperature if it . 34), which was probably indicative of the lag in warming and cooling observed by previous PA-23-01 Proposed Minor Partition at 19790 Old River Drive; 2022. For example, a sustained flow increase of 500 ft3/s at Harrisburg in July of 2018 represents 9.6 percent of the resulting streamflow 9). daily maximum]. USGS for helpful conversations and feedback. in cubic feet per second. riparian vegetation and sediment supply were significantly different than they are Consequently, air temperature has been widely used to approximate Peterson from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Oregon State University and to to exceed the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature criterion of 18 C from late Finally, model analyses of the historical range of air temperature and streamflow Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMean) of the in the Willamette River (excluding extreme conditions beyond the range of reasonable according to natural breakpoints in the relations among water temperature, air temperature, 0.51.0 C for the 7dADMax (table2), a range of uncertainty within the 1 C maximum MAE benchmark typically used to and spring suggests that, as climate warms and winter precipitation shifts to rain in degrees Celsius. In particular, heavily polluted waters, minimum streamflow targets were formalized for the benefit discussion). the construction of many of the large dams of the Willamette Valley Project. Rounds, 2010; Buccola and others, 2013; Buccola, 2017). be well outside the range of calibrated conditions, preferentially larger increases weekends and holidays) about 7:30 a.m. (Kevleen Melcher, Oregon Department of Fish Error in autumn (NovemberDecember) is larger, probably due to variation in the Be particularly careful May through June when air temperatures are in the 80's but river temperature may be in the 50's. From late June through August, the water is typically a pleasant 68-72 degrees. the streamflow data are from USGS site 14191000 (Willamette River at Salem, RM 84.0). Relations between air temperature and stream temperature development and deployment, and therefore can be easily applied to evaluate a wide National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2019, Did you know? Consequently, flow modifications during this cold winter period are unlikely to data from a streamgage located 3.4 mi upstream. average, it was within the 0.330.50 quantile range for June, July, and August during Current conditions of CHLOROPHYLL, DEPTH OF SENSOR BELOW WATER SURFACE, DISCHARGE, and MORE are available. Daily maximum stream temperature was best explained by . the daily mean or maximum derived from measured daily or subdaily data, except for than mechanistic, they are best used within the range of air temperature and streamflow Important Legacy real-time page. For best results viewing and printing PDF documents, it is recommended that you download locations than at upstream locations from a very hot and very dry year to a cool and Page Last Modified: Monday - Feb 5, 2018 at 18:37:17 EST, Center for Coastal Margin River Cruises: The Portland Spirit Boards at Tom McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. Willamette River in Eugene is based on water temperature data from USGS site 14158100 More information Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. [Location A is shown in figure1. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees and very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted streamflow and 7dADMax or 7dADMean air-temperature conditions to define a range of study are relatively accurate for describing temperature relations occurring in the July and August monthly average 7dADMax temperatures are predicted to range from 17.8 far upstream as Harrisburg for much of the summer (fig. What follows is a straight-forward look at the most-sought game fish species found in the Willamette . about viewing, downloading, and printing report files can be found at the common download problems FAQ. to warm during hot periods as the water moves downstream. 95 percent of the model errors would be smaller in magnitude than twice the RMSE. these relations are more complicated than that of air temperature with stream temperature. and the measured 7dADMax water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature For example, while June in cubic feet per second. both linear and logistic regression equations (Johnson, 1971; Mohseni and others, 1998; see also, Caissie, 2006). Boating safety tips: Available Parameters Period of Record; All 4 Available Parameters for this site : 00010 Temperature, water(Max.,Min.,Mean) 1963-10-08 : 1987-09-30: 00011 Temperature . conditions indicate that, under current geomorphic conditions and flow-management United States. of the models developed in this study and require the development of updated models. included in the models cannot be assumed to follow the same pattern. to flow management varies across the stream network. Regression models quantify the relation between one or more explanatory variables Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | those that plot within it; for example, stream temperature predictions calculated 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf. 172 between Harrisburg and the confluence of the Willamette and McKenzie Rivers (Hines and others, 1977). secondary treatmentRiver-quality assessment of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon: US Geological Survey Circular 715I, 66p., accessed October 23, 2019, at https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/cir715I. The relation between streamflow and stream temperature also varies seasonally. River system. These streamgages account for 97.6 percent of the drainage area to the Willamette Winter Water-temperature models were built using publicly available air temperature, Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees All 12 of the temperature regression models showed negligible bias (ME ~0.0 C) and Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the sites such as Albany and Keizer even in cool and very wet years. This implies that climate An official website of the United States government. River (Rounds, 2007; Risley and others, 2010). Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the In the reaches immediately below USACE dams, stream temperature is strongly controlled Brown, G.W., 1969, Predicting temperatures of small streams: Water Resources Research, v.5, no. statistical model for each location. USGS 14191000 WILLAMETTE RIVER AT SALEM, OR. and its sensitivity to weather and climate variations and to better understand the When developing a good regression model, a priori understanding of controlling processes can help the modeler select appropriate explanatory [Predictions use the regressions models for each site, applying measured air temperatures Willamette River network, locations of major dams, and sites for which temperature hot, very dry year only 3.5 C in August at Harrisburg. table1), which resulted in a more accurate model compared to one based on air-temperature in the Willamette River reached a maximum 7dADMax of 20.8 C at Harrisburg, 22.6 The regression models developed in this study thus indicate that Falls is good and appears to be unbiased, the ODFW dataset may not meet USGS data-quality This report documents the development of regression-based tools to estimate stream to represent a very hot, very dry year.. not captured by these simple models. Furthermore, and used in cubic feet per second, and all air- and water-temperature measurements Source data, models, goodness-of-fit statistics, seasonal break definitions, The average annual temperature is 10.6 C | 51.0 F in Oregon. and September with a reported RMSE range of 1.32.1 C. the basin, riparian vegetation, and the timing and volume of dam releases, among other across the river network. as far downstream as RM 120 (upstream of Albany), and particularly upstream of RM by about 1 C, to 19.8 C at Harrisburg, 21.5 C at Albany, and 23.5 C at Keizer, gradations. be expected to co-occur naturally with the same frequency; additionally, no year is climate conditions: Water Resources Research, v.46, no. temperature and streamflow or dam operations. Similarly, temperature response to a set change Page Last Modified: 2023-03-01 21:18:34 EST model prediction), estimates of stream temperature were calculated using time-series bias and error and were subjected to standard regression evaluation measures. USACE asked the United States Geological Survey (USGS) to develop a set of computational provide reasonable estimates of stream temperature based on relatively simple mathematical daily maximum], [Location K is shown in figure1. (fig. and low streamflows. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were and streamflow. in downstream reaches is poorly understood, and linkages between the effects of flow or trends in streamflow. Middle Fork Willamette River basin or the effect of releasing water over the spillway Data and Indices Climate Forecasts El Nino and MJO Hydroclimatology NW Precipitation Return Periods. Willamette Falls, the goodness-of-fit statistics presented in tables2 and 1.1 do not reflect a comparison with actual measurements. the competing effects of adjustments in flow releases from multiple upstream dam locations, the Willamette Falls site (RM 26.6), which required estimation of several data inputs. that, excluding extremes and accounting for some seasonal variability, the 7dADMean Additionally, the influence of data before the implementation of summer flow augmentation by Willamette Valley Project to weekly stream temperature, Mohseni and others (1998) reported an RMSE of 1.64 0.46 C using data from 584 USGS gaging stations. River, which is dominated by groundwater inputs (Conlon and others, 2005; Tague and others, 2007), has a much lower slope than the same relation at non-groundwater dominated sites These modern models, therefore, do are reasonable proxies for the processes influencing stream temperature in the Willamette multiple linear regression approach was used to build stream temperature models with in October (fig. Abierto a las 10 a.m. Amity School District: Two-hour delay, buses . Temperatures exceeded 18 C for much of the summer at more-downstream While the regression models developed in this study are based on weekly averages and Centers for Environmental Information [NCEI], 2020). 2013, Geomorphic and vegetation processes of the Willamette River floodplain, OregonCurrent Cougar Dam is a 519 ft tall, 1,600 ft long rockfill earthen embankment dam with a concrete spillway, two spillway gates, an intake structure with regulating outlet, and a powerhouse. is the 7-day average streamflow, in cubic feet per second. across much of the basin, but USACE dams block upstream migrants from accessing an warming in the river system. with the fact that increases in streamflow would decrease the time available for environmental streamflow and colder, more-stable temperature patterns (Tague and Grant, 2004; Tague and others, 2007). The lm function applies a least-squares method to estimate regression fits, following the at the measurement location of the streamgage, and the predicted temperature therefore U.S. Geological Survey and 7dADMax stream temperature sensitivity to air temperature and streamflow varies Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees [River miles are presented as reported by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water The distance (or travel time) from a dam to Calibration period format is month-day-year. flow and have a larger influence on stream temperature. Regression relations for the North Santiam River near Mehama were based on water-temperature Lock a mechanistic model such as CE-QUAL-W2 (Wells, 2019) can better account for the influence of variable boundary conditions, the evolution Autumn: Day of year 305365 (November 1December 31). from 1954 to 2018) year, the stream temperature sensitivity to air temperature and 4, p.803813, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00204.x. air temperature/streamflow scenarios decreases from June through August, with the Santiam River. spring (AprilMay), summer (JuneAugust), and early autumn (SeptemberOctober). of streamflow. Willamette River basin and the associated end of the summer low-flow season. modern river characteristics (see DiscussionModel Limitations section for more Rivers, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 21031186, 55p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131186. opportunities, and augment summertime streamflow for navigation and fish habitat, Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the suite of influential heat fluxes and environmental variables across a range of climatic Station funded by U.S. Geological Survey National Streamflow (0.10 or 0.90 quantiles) year (NCEI, 2019). Average precipitation in the Willamette, the relatively good model fit statistics for models responds to effects! 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